03 TOPCon and HJT routes go hand in hand, cost measurement is the key

The cost of silicon wafers and pastes for N-type solar cells needs to be optimized. From the perspective of the cost structure of HJT solar cells, the relatively high proportions include raw materials and manufacturing costs, and the relatively large proportions of raw materials include silicon wafers, silver paste, etc.; HJT's non-silicon costs account for 50%, and reducing non-silicon costs becomes HJT cost reduction Important direction. The cost per watt of TOPCon solar cell is mainly composed of silicon wafer, silver paste and depreciation, accounting for 62.5%, 15.8%, and 3.7% of the cost respectively. The future cost reduction will mainly come from thinning, silver paste consumption and equipment cost reduction.

Early N-type solar cell production lines mostly used high-cost overseas equipment. As domestic equipment continues to mature, more and more purely domestic production lines will appear. Among the 4 bidding lines planned by Tongwei for 1GW in 2020, purely domestic production lines will appear. The commissioning data of the 4 lines is expected to be released in 2021. The localization of HJT solar cell production line equipment supply is obvious. In terms of the cost of domestic equipment, Jiejia Weichuang has set a goal to reach 25% HJT conversion efficiency by 2021, and strive to reduce the investment in single GW equipment to 350 million, which is expected to promote the initial formation of a new pattern of N-type solar cell equipment market.

TrendForce's analysis pointed out that the current PERC solar cell yield rate can reach more than 98%, but the main processes of TOPCon and HJT solar cells are not yet fully mature, which has become the main challenge restricting the development of current N-type solar cells. The trend of large-size cells has also further extended the life cycle of the more mature PERC technology. In 2021, the mass production of N-type solar cells will still be dominated by G1 and M6. Under the reform of large-size silicon wafers, it overcomes the challenges of higher cost, stability of mass production efficiency and yield.